Political Star-gazing for 2020
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| Image: New York Times / March 3 2017 |
Issues that may complicate the political landscape in 2020. I have chosen these four issues, although Venezuela, the unrest in Syria and the Near East, and the tempest that is the South China Sea stand to command attention throughout the year, as expected.
1) Taiwanese election on January 11
The central government has done some sabre rattling in 2019 about forcefully taking Taiwan under their umbrella and recently sailing their new carrier through the Taiwan Strait to intimidate Tsai in- wen's officials and Taiwanese voters. There is the matter of U.S. arms sales to Taipei and the continuation of FONOPS in the Taiwan Strait by America and Allies including Britain and France. Moreover, Malaysia and Vietnam are plotting to seek counsel on how to manage China's incursion into their economic zones (EEZ) and with a Philippine victory already at The Hague, the pressure will be on the CPP to abstain slightly or go full throttle throwing the entire Mainland into disarray. China should continue to use moderation with such high stakes in the region with security, trade, and a looming U.S. election. Factoring in an active Japanese military, Australia aligning with American interests, and the prospects for a major conflict are not unimaginable. Hopefully, cooler heads prevail. Xi Jinping's fire and brimstone speech in January 2019 along with the protests in Hong Kong are enough proof for Taiwanese to maintain the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in power. Taiwan has passed anti-infiltration legislation on December 31, 2019 to counter Chinese attempts to manipulate the election process "through illicit funding of politicians and the media and other underhand methods" according to The Strait Times and Reuters. The criticism by China opposing the bill sends a clear message that they have further designs on aggressively countering Taiwanese democracy.
2) Uncertainty with the Canadian minority government
Prime Minster Justin Trudeau was returned to power with a strong minority government in October. He faces a divided Canada where the Liberal Party could not muster any seats in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Alberta desperately needs a pipeline to push its oil to market, while Western provinces feel alienated by Trudeau's centralization of power and resources in Ontario and Quebec. Mr Trudeau has failed to win favour with President Trump and this has hampered his hopes of securing the release of the two Canadian hostages in China. American tariffs remain on Canadian steel and aluminum with the pending passage of the USMCA trade deal still wending its way through Congress. The Liberals will need to count on the support of the separatist Bloc Quebecois or New Democratic Party to defeat any confidence motions to defeat the government. If Trudeau balks at NDP demands for health care spending the government could fall and a late Autumn or Winter vote could send Canadians back to the polls. The NDP cannot afford anther election right now, so they may temper their expectations, while the Conservative Party have to choose a new leader. Paradoxically, the government may try to orchestrate its own defeat with a weakened opposition and force through unpopular legislation. Still, given Trudeau's performance in 2019, the end of this government is nigh, particularly with a shelf life of two years for minority governments in Canada.
3) BREXIT conclusion
Sadly, the BREXIT imbroglio has cost Theresa May her job as Prime Minister and ushered in Boris Johnson to seal the deal and Britain's divorce from the EU. EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan said on December 30 in FXSTREET that “Boris Johnson will renege on his legal commitment to exit the Brexit transition period by the end of 2020.”If BREXIT continues to be delayed, perhaps the EU will walk away from the British partnership and get on with business. European Commission Incumbent President, Ursula von der Leyen has warned that a "cliff edge" BREXIT at the end of 2020 will be more harmful to Britain than the E.U. Charles Michel, current EU Commission President wants certainty that the UK will not undercut EU standards after BREXIT. This stands to be a very messy divorce and with the level of obstinance on both sides, a deal in 2020 seems unlikely.
4) United States election
Donald Trump faces impeachment, though a Republican controlled Senate must pull the plug on him, which seems unlikely. The Democrats owe the Republicans for the hatchet job that Newt Gingrich did on Bill Clinton when he was impeached over the Monica Lewinsky affair. The best that the DNC can hope for is that a viable candidate will emerge to challenge Trump and this person is looking more like former Vice President, Joe Biden. This will set up the perfect storm between the President who was conspiring with the Ukrainian President to "dig up dirt" on Mr. Biden in anticipation of the 2020 election. Trump has a loyal base and voters will remember his strong support for American jobs, values, and his unorthodox approach to governing. A second term is in the cards for Mr. Trump unless 1) enough Senators decide their own jobs are at risk for supporting Trump against impeachment, 2) further damaging information is released i.e. Donald Trump's tax returns, 3) a military conflict ensues resulting in American personnel losses beyond expectations, and 4) Mr Trump's health prevents him from pursuing a second term.