China's rise creating stronger fissures among allies and others in the international community - May 3 2020

 

Introduction

The People's Republic of China has grown economically to 12.24 Trillion in 2017 according to World Bank figures.  Mao Zedong's passing in 1976 ushered in reforms under Deng Xiaoping that continue to the present period approaching a mandated "Made in China 2025" objective of surpassing established industrialized nation - states in technological prowess. China continues to adhere to its authoritarian tenets since the CCP ousted the Kuomintang government in the Chinese Civil War in 1949.  Currently, the central government has maintained its populist authoritarianism to strengthen and expand its grip in the South China Sea chiding its neighbors to enforce a nine- dash territorial claim that is not recognized by the U.N.  or major powers.  Xi Jinping, in his first term as CCP President, produced a program to extend China's footprint through Europe, Africa, and with all willing partners   through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI.) Thus, China's central government is recapturing the Silk Road that has ceased since approximately the 18th c. The OECD claims "projects are estimated to add over USD 1 trillion of outward funding for foreign infrastructures" where funding is provided by "state directed development and commercial banks."  

The objective of thesis rests on the notion of a "One China" policy that stands to come into conflict with the rules - based established world order of primarily western political democracies.  The United States has held the mantle of world leader both economically and military in a post WW2 orbit since the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 that pegged the U.S. currency as the leading international currency. Suffice it to say, China's rise has put considerable pressure on the United States to maximize military spending on an annual basis, while protecting its sphere of influence, including the Pacific region where China has militarized islets in the Spratley Islands region and has ambitions to invade, occupy, and bring Taiwan into its republic. 

American Opposition

China seeks superiority status despite shortcomings related to human rights criticisms, currency manipulation, forced technology transfers, and extra judicial policies that favor scrutiny over transparency of its domestic polices. 

Forbes reports that since 2013 China's oil demand has increased 30% to 13.8 million bpd.  The stress on the central government to acquire and develop its natural resources rests on China's oil production dropping by 15% based on 2013 figures. Hence, the need for Chinese authorities to drive exploration in the South China Sea within their nine-dash boundary at the displeasure of their neighbors who have competing claims in the region.  China's neighbors with competing claims include   Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, The Philippines, Japan, and Taiwan that coupled with American presence in the South China Sea  encourages opportunities for military confrontations

Indeed, as America insists on sailing wherever international law allows, an emboldened PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy) is staking its claim to the South China Sea based on historical information regarding its self imposed nine dash line. The Republic of China, in 1947, constructed a map that was published as "Map of South China Sea Islands" and was adopted by the CPC n 1949. Steve Mollman in Quartz illustrates that it was an eleven-dash line that afforded the Gulf of Tonkin to Vietnam, however, ultimately, ensconced the contentions Spratley and Paracel islands along with the Scarborough Shoal claimed by The Philippines today. In addition, a UN Tribunal ruled in favor of The Philippines in a 2016 decision that China refuses to recognize, throwing more disarray into multilateral relations with China and its neighbors. The 1947 map, while augmented by China and the Republic of China was never acted upon until 2009 during the Hu Jintao presidential period. In 2009, the central government reacted to Vietnam commissioning the UN to extend its continental shelf and exercise sovereignty over the Spratley and Paracel island clusters. This request raised the ire of China's central government, which prompted them to adopt the 1947 map and build a directive around their claims for future expansionist plans.  Can China become a global power based on regional strength? Due to the growth of the military budget and technical prowess, financial strength, particularly since becoming an WTO member in 2002, and a leader in Xi Jinping that has unlimited presidential terms, the prospects of China as a direct challenger to American superiority looked positive until the novel coronavirus was discovered in Wuhan China and is now a a global pandemic.

COVID - 19 and implications 

China's 1.4 billion population and penchant for a non-traditional western diet, despite a strong western influence on the Mainland, has created a market for illegal wildlife at various venues. An outbreak of the current COVID - 19 coronavirus has created furor internationally as widespread fatalities begin to mount in Europe - notably, Italy & Spain, as well as the United States. That Wuhan officials failed to act promptly has cast a shadow on China as a competent leader for the international community and has highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of China's authoritarian system of governance. On the one hand, Wuhan workers constructed a public hospital with 1,000 beds in a ten-day period. Moreover, the central government ordered Wuhan province under quarantine to limit the spread of the virus within the Mainland. The closing of Hubei province with 74.7 million population has led to China being criticized for these draconian measures, though, despite those measures, has shown to be very effective in combatting the virus. The debate centers around China's lack of transparency in data supporting their claims of virus containment, and the manner in which Wuhan officials and ultimately, Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to act expeditiously until January 2020, leaving the international community at a decided disadvantage in recognizing the coronavirus and putting in place effective protocols to diagnose and manage the situation with alacrity and promptness. As casualties mount in all global regions, global leaders are beginning to look at China as a flawed partner that is a liability due to its closed method of communicating to the outside world important matters such as COVID -19. 

There are whispers in the international community of nation-states affected by COVID-19 to seek financial retribution from China through legal means. This is entirely appropriate given the loss of life and destruction of G7 economies. When private citizens suffer ill effects of a defective product or service, a class action lawsuit is launched.  This notion can propel nation states to act on their behalf and failing that, it is possible to see an international class action type of lawsuit wending its way to the International Criminal Court at The Hague. Might President Xi Jinping face war crimes charges for the central governments cover up is doubtful, but appropriate in defense of the victims, both in economic terms and casualties. If COVID - 19 is considered a war of sorts, an argument can be constructed to invoke 'Jus Post Bellum' - justice after war, in seeking reparations from China and others who were careless in diagnosing the severity of the coronavirus.  Approximating those costs will take years after the pandemic subsides and an accounting system is devised to measure total costs to a nation state and expenses to rebuild. Some nation - states, like Canada are running historical deficits to counter job losses to individuals and loss of pecuniary activity to all business models. Finally, if we invoke, Jus Ad Bellum - the correct criterion for war, the protocol needs to be amended to consider virology.  The final cost to human life, infrastructure, and future generations may make The Treaty of Versailles, pale in comparison. As of April 20, 2020, John Hopkins University of Medicine reports 2,404, 555 total global infections along with 165, 238 total global deaths. The political aftermath of COVID - 19 stands to crteate power struggles in those regimes that consolidated power during this period and may be unwilling to concede those measures. 

“We could have a parallel epidemic of authoritarian and repressive measures following close if not on the heels of a health epidemic,” said Fionnuala Ni Aolain, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on counterterrorism and human rights." 4

Trade and Economy 

China has eleven (FTA)  free trade agreements, with many being phased in and from smaller nation-states (Chile, Costa Rica, Iceland, and Peru,) except for Pakistan which has strong  economic bi lateral relations with the central government.2 China's trade balance for 2018 as reported by WITS (World Integrated Trade Solutions) gives China a positive trade balance of 359, 247, 579.098 in thousands of USD. 3

While China enjoys a trade surplus with most economies; their largest surplus remains with the United States which has seen this figure grow from a 6 million USD trade deficit in 1985 to a post WTO member 2019 figure of 345,616 USD (in millions.) 3 Canada had a 21.3 billion USD trade deficit in 2016 with China that continues to grow while talk of a FTA free trade agreement is muted due to the Canadian arrest of Huawei executive, Meng Wanzhou and subsequent Chinese arrest of Canadians, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, that some argue is retaliatory.  The current COVID -19 pandemic has shifted governmental focus to managing the pandemic, while foreign affairs issues receive little fanfare unless a meeting of G7/ G20 leaders meet on economic matters that are consumed by coronavirus related funding issues. Currently, there are Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) occurring in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait involving American and Australian naval vessels in deference to China's muscular posture in the region towards their neighbors (Malaysia and Vietnam, in particular) who are working within their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) exploring energy to source for their own use. The PLA and central government see an opportunity with a weakened American Navy to create a stronger presence to galvanize their "nine dash" map to enforce their will in the SCS and push Taiwan towards unification with the mainland. In the current period (April 2020) China has established administrative districts on Xisha and Nansha, districts that are opposed by Vietnam and The Philippines who have competing claims to these fortified Chinese islands built on reefs. 

China's entrance into the World Trade Organization hoped to spawn democracy on the mainland, however, i t has emboldened the central government to expand and modernize the PLA  (People's Liberation Army) from 35.13 USD billion in 2003 to 250 USD billion in 2018. The crux of the current wave of imperialism in China rests with control of the South China Sea, exercising a stronger hold over Hong Kong, with an eye on bringing Taiwan into it's orbit, by force, if necessary. 

Indeed, Chinese imperialism has re-emerged since Mao's passing in 1976. The survival of the PRC after the Tiananmen incident pushed China towards opening up the economy on the mainland for entrepreneurs and limited FDI. Looking like responsible statesmen, China was admitted as a member into the WTO organization in 2003. Their military budget rose from 4 billion USD in 1989 to 23 billion USD in 2003. Beginning in 2004 it jumped dramatically from approximately 26 billion to 108 billion USD according to globalsecurity.org. Chinese exports during the same period have expanded exponentially from  -

Research Objective

My focus will concern China's move towards a stronger sense of imperialism during the regime of Xi Jinping.  My argument will favor democratization on the mainland in a post Xi period, while, the aftermath of the COVID - 19 crisis will re-shape the attitudes of public officials concerning foreign policy and trade with the central government. Indeed, the attitude shift away from China as a secure trading partner and trusted global power stands to diminish the stature of Xi's leadership and hasten his departure despite unlimited term limits.  I will consider comparative examples of authoritarian leaders to strengthen my argument against the China maintaining the strength of its command economy and shifting towards a current Russian type model of a managed democracy. A stronger sense of human rights, labor peace, workers rights and labor unions will become wended into the daily lives for those Chinese citizens on the mainland. The questions of Taiwanese sovereignty need to be raised including how a renewed militarized Japan affects China's prospects in the South China Sea region with other western powers such as Australia in the Pacific and traditional European partners of the U.S. partnering to restrict China's goal as the primary global and economic power that it envisions. The continued expansion of grey zone tactics by the central government has weakened the territorial integrity of regional actors applying more pressure on Washington to be the ballast in the region.

Works Cited 

1"China's Belt and Road Initiative in the Global Trade, Investment and Finance Landscape." OECD 2018.  18 April 2020. <https://www.oecd.org/finance/Chinas-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-in-the-global-trade-investment-and-finance-landscape.pdf>.

2 Devonshire - Ellis, Chris. "Understanding China’s Free Trade Agreements." China-Briefing.10.02.2014. 24.043.2020. <https://www.chinabriefing.com/news/understanding-chinas-free-trade-agreements/>.

3 United States Census Bureau. "Trade in Goods with China" 13.4.2020. 24.4.2020. < https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html>.

4Gebrekidan, Selam.  "For Autocrats, and Others, Coronavirus Is a Chance to Grab Even More Power."  The New York Times. 14.4.2020. 24.04.2020.