Justin Trudeau miscalculated on India- the end is nigh for the Liberal's

 

It's the economy stupid" was the slogan that the brilliant duo of Robert Begula and James Carville came up with for the first election campaign of former U.S. President Bill Clinton. He rode that to victory against incumbent George HW Bush in 1993. Closer to home in Canada, Canadian's were totally fed up with the Progressive Conservative government led byBrian Mulroney.  Mulroney and his party had become arrogant and out of touch with folks. When the dust settled on the 1993 General Election, the Tories were reduced to two seats: Elsie Wayne and Jean Charest who would go on to become Premier of Quebec. 

Justin Trudeau came to power in 2015 as a handsome, youthful man with a famous last name - his dad was Canadian Prime Minister. Pierre Trudeau was built "better" for the job with a law degree and various experience as a student at Harvard and the London School of Economics to name two academic institutions. Now, Justin isn't exactly from meagre beginnings; he has a BEd.

When the Liberal Party was routed in 2011 with Canadian - Harvard academic Michael Ignatieff they turned to the younger Trudeau to lead them back to power, which he did in 2015. Justin fit in well with the smartphone crowd snapping selfies with adoring voters. The problems began when he made promises that he did not deliver on like electoral reform. Still, he did enough  to get re-elected as the Conservative Party could not find a permanent leader with the skill level - Trudeau is a good debater - and photogenic appeal to challenge the Liberal leader.   

 Trudeau and the Liberals handled COVID reasonably well, after all there wasn't a  playbook to guide the government during a pandemic.  Trudeau handed out billions to individuals and businesses to sustain them during this period. 

Trudeau's and Liberal propensity for scandals, high deficits, an unwanted carbon tax, a massive influx of new Canadians coupled with unaffordable housing for purchasers and renters has created dissent for most Canadians.  Finally, his polling numbers this summer cratered and he has nothing to offer Canadians to buy their support. Yet, this week will prove to be his undoing as Prime Minister. After another disastrous trip to India to attend the G20 where he was given short shrift by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, plane troubles that left hm stranded in India for an additional 48 hours, and rumours of narcotics on the said plane, he returned to Canada to open a new session of Parliament on Monday. In the opening session of Parliament he stated that Indian agents operating within Canada assassinated a Sikh Khalistanni supporter (Hardeep Singh Nijjar) in Surrey British Columbia in June 2023. Trudeau has offered no proof to opposition leaders, the  Canadian  public or Allies such as Australia, Great Britain and the United States.  Despite this, Canada moved quickly to expel a top Indian diplomat on Monday, while India followed suit on Tuesday. Both sides have issued travel advisories to  their citizens. 

What is the aftermath of Trudeau's imbroglio with India?

1) The pending free trade agreement with India is on hold. India acts as a good ballast to China in the Indo Pacific and the U.S. and Allies will be careful not to jeapordise trade with India by  picking sides in this dispute because doing so my create a deeper fissure with BRICS members: Brazil/Russia/India/China/South Africa and other pending members that align more closely with authoritarian regimes.    

2) Foreign relations with Allies are strained as the government tries to shore up support with U.S. U.K. Australia etc. to implicate India as the perpetrator of an extra judicial killing of a Canadian on Canadian soil. 

3) Canadian citizens are being asked to choose a side between supporters of India or Sikh's that support a Khalistan state within India. Trudeau's divisive policy's have reached a new nadir with these  latest series of moves against India (that label Nijjar a separatist and terrorist.)  

4) The Liberal government is trailing in recent polls from 8-15%. Trudeau saw an opportunity to divert  attention away from his governments poor performance and to rally his caucus.  

5) The NDP-Liberal coalition has 1) revoked the votes of voters who did not vote for either Party in the 2022 General Election and 2) has moved Canada dangerously close  to a far -left approach that is inherently as problematic as the far - right.

6) The woke movement is scuppering positive elements of history that has have negative  reverberations for the Aboriginal community such as residential schools though stripping the namesake of some schools is not a strong resolution to an age old problem. Wokeism is not a panacea for past events that certain groups are not congruent with. Justin Trudeau's activist agenda is parochial in nature and seeks to serve his personal interests, mostly. Power is concentrated in the PMO (Prime Ministers Offiee) leaving a vulnerable and weak Party around him.

7) Canada's reputation internationally is plummeting and can be revitalized with a more competent administration. 

8) The killing of American journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi operatives at the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul. Per Wikipedia "On 7 September 2020, eight people tied to the murder were sentenced to prison. Their sentences ranged from 7 to 20 years. Saudi Arabia did not release their names. Governments mostly of an authoritarian nature continue to operate with impunity to serve their interests.  

A General Election is due for 2025. If the opposition can defeat the government on a non confidence motion, an election will occur in advance of 2025. However, as the NDP led by Jagmeet Singh is supporting the Liberal minority government, an election is ot imminent unless Trudeau's claims against India are baseless, in which case, he must resign. It looks to be the end for  Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau, politically. The Liberals in my opinion today would garner 30 seats in a General Election with the NDP generating around 15 seats.