The Aftermath of the al- Baghdadi assassination
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| al - Baghdadi deposed |
Reports tonight indicate Islamic State leader, Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi has been killed in a U.S. air strike in northern Syria. Another report stated that he detonated a suicide vest to avoid capture as he was accustomed to doing.
Apparently, this action was approved by President Trump with help from the C.I.A. Moreover, The New York Times reports this day that Maj. Gen. John W. Brennan Jr. as military secretary of the Joint Special Operations Command had been rehearsing the insurgency against Baghdadi for the past week. Baghdadi had seen a fissure in the north of Syria with the confusion regarding America's draw-down of troops, Turkey's invasion into Syria to scuttle the Kurd's position, and Russia gaining a stronger presence in the region. Baghdadi had his communications link intercepted leading to his whereabouts.
Apparently, this action was approved by President Trump with help from the C.I.A. Moreover, The New York Times reports this day that Maj. Gen. John W. Brennan Jr. as military secretary of the Joint Special Operations Command had been rehearsing the insurgency against Baghdadi for the past week. Baghdadi had seen a fissure in the north of Syria with the confusion regarding America's draw-down of troops, Turkey's invasion into Syria to scuttle the Kurd's position, and Russia gaining a stronger presence in the region. Baghdadi had his communications link intercepted leading to his whereabouts.
This may seem a coup for the American President, as he is embroiled with Congress over what looks to be his impending impeachment, regarding the Ukrainian foreign policy imbroglio in a funding for interrogation of Mr. Trump's political opponent and former American Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. The killing of Baghdadi is sure to provide a short-term boost to the Presidents approval rating; however, should this development inflame remnants of Islamic State in northern Syria, (that may have escaped when Mr. Trump ordered the drawdown of troops affecting the Kurds who were supporting American interests opposing Daesh) the Trump Administration will be forced to reverse course and install troops once again. Trump and his national security advisor, Robert O’ Brien, will continue to face scrutiny over a Near – East policy that has had very brief periods of stability, such as the Oslo Accord in 1995. Kurdish forces want a no fly zone that may become a reality if the recent cease-fire fails, another refugee crisis engulfs Syria's north, and the UN and Allies act efficiently.
The main beneficiaries of Baghdadi’s death are Turkish Pres. Erdogan who can focus his attention on containing the Kurds in the north of Syria and east into Iraq. Russia will continue to fill the void that was left after the American drawdown of troops and must be vigilant against attacks against it by rogue Islamic State cells in that region. Syrian Pres. Assad stands to gain the most by doing the least during the civil unrest in his country that has cost over 500,000 lives according to the United Nations. Assad only needs to secure the southern half of his country and can do that with assistance from groups in the region such as Hezbollah, and forces inside his country from Iran and Russia. Northern Syria will continue to be the quagmire that it has been during this period of unrest with many interested vying for control, particularly, Turkey who wants to fortify its border. Pres. Al – Assad is fighting for control of Idlib in the north with Russian and Iranian support. What could have been a major coup for Pres. Trump two weeks ago, along the lines of the killing of Osama bin Laden during the Obama administration, seems likely to become an afterthought by the American Thanksgiving day celebration.
Because of the factional elements in northern Syria, there does not appear to be a role for Canadian peacemakers to bolster its presence in the international community in its traditional sense, or strengthen Canada's hopes for a UN seat in the future.
Therefore, a clear winner in this case is Syrian Pres. Al - Assad who maintains his grip over the preeminent areas of his country. In the event that Islamic State reorganizes and creates havoc in northeast Daesh epicenter – Raqqa, that may require American assistance, there might be a good reason to oust Pres. Al -Assad, who should have been deposed at least five years ago. Al Qaeda, Hezbollah and Iran are winners in an ever – unsettled Syrian state less a Daesh strongman. Indeed, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei-confidante Mehdi Taeb said in 2013 that Syria is Iran’s “35th province…if we lose Syria we won’t be able to hold Tehran.”Without Iranian military aide and financial largesse, al-Assad’s regime may have fallen long ago. 1 The domino’s continue to fall in the international community’s most fractious zone since the advent of Near East foreign policy post WW2. One of those pillars is dissolved after at least five years of a manhunt, a 25 million US bounty on Baghdadi’s capture or death, and at least one failed assassination attempt.
>as reported by The Globe & Mail on October 29, 2019.
“Just confirmed that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s number one replacement has been terminated by American troops,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “Most likely would have taken the top spot.”
Trump did not specify who he was referring to, but the United States on Monday confirmed the killing of Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir, Islamic State spokesman and a high-ranking figure within the jihadi group.
The New York Times reports on October 31 that "Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurayshi, whom it identified as the “emir of the believers” and “caliph.”
"The al-Qurayshi appellation at the end of the new leader’s name indicates that he is being portrayed as a descendant of the Quraysh tribe of the Prophet Muhammad, a lineage that the Islamic State considers to be a prerequisite for becoming a caliph, or ruler of a Muslim theocracy.
The New York Times reports on October 31 that "Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurayshi, whom it identified as the “emir of the believers” and “caliph.”
"The al-Qurayshi appellation at the end of the new leader’s name indicates that he is being portrayed as a descendant of the Quraysh tribe of the Prophet Muhammad, a lineage that the Islamic State considers to be a prerequisite for becoming a caliph, or ruler of a Muslim theocracy.
Its use indicates that the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, ISIL and Daesh, continues to see itself as a caliphate — even if one with practically no territory."
“Those names are the most generic names I can think of in a long time,” said Daniele Raineri, a journalist and analyst who has been studying the Islamic State’s leadership structure for more than a decade. “This trick is obfuscating on purpose the possible links to people we know.”2
Works Cited
“Those names are the most generic names I can think of in a long time,” said Daniele Raineri, a journalist and analyst who has been studying the Islamic State’s leadership structure for more than a decade. “This trick is obfuscating on purpose the possible links to people we know.”2
Works Cited
1Price, Bryan. “Syria: A Wicked Problem For All.” Combatting Terrorism Centre At West Point: CTC Sentinel. Vol 6 Issue 8. 2013 August. <https://ctc.usma.edu/app/uploads/2013/08/CTCSentinel-Vol6Iss88.pdf.>
2 Eric Schmitt, Evan Hill and Rick Gladstone. "ISIS Names New Leader and Confirms al-Baghdadi’s Death." The New York Times. 31 October 2019. <https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/31/world/middleeast/isis-al-baghdadi-dead.html>. 31 October 2019.
3 Nsubuga, Jimmy. "In pictures: Inside the overcrowded northern Syrian prison where thousands of Isis suspects are kept." Yahoo News UK. 30 October 2019.
<https://ca.yahoo.com/news/in-pictures-inside-the-overcrowded-northern-syrian-prison-where-thousands-of-is-suspects-are-kept-123824156.html>. 31 October 2019.
2 Eric Schmitt, Evan Hill and Rick Gladstone. "ISIS Names New Leader and Confirms al-Baghdadi’s Death." The New York Times. 31 October 2019. <https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/31/world/middleeast/isis-al-baghdadi-dead.html>. 31 October 2019.
3 Nsubuga, Jimmy. "In pictures: Inside the overcrowded northern Syrian prison where thousands of Isis suspects are kept." Yahoo News UK. 30 October 2019.
<https://ca.yahoo.com/news/in-pictures-inside-the-overcrowded-northern-syrian-prison-where-thousands-of-is-suspects-are-kept-123824156.html>. 31 October 2019.
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