Business as usual in the South China Sea + COVID-19

The  Pentagon - 1400 Defense Pentagon, Washington, D.C. 20301-1400

Now that, at least according to the central government, the COVID-19 crisis has passed due to CPC ingenuity, the PLA can refocus on controlling elements in the South China Sea. This is an opportune time with leading democracies such  as the United States, Italy  and much of Europe fighting the spread of the coronavirus that first appeared in Wuhan in November, according to reports. There are suggestions that Chinese authorities are under reporting figures that reinforce the strength of communist actions in January to limit the spread of the infection further inside the mainland, Macao, and Hong Kong.

While America has continued with its FONOPS in the South China Sea, they lack contributions from allies to demonstrate solidarity against Chinese aggression in the region. China has rammed and sunk a Vietnamese fishing boat recently, leading to protests by the Vietnamese central government towards the central government in Beijing. America is now distracted by COVID -19 and the highest infection rate - 301, 902 and a death toll at 8,175 that includes New York City with comparable casualty figures to 911(April 4,  John Hopkins.)  Mark Esper - US Defense Secretary may be ready to support American claims in the SCS region after a short break by the US military due to an outbreak on the USS Theodore Roosevelt. Esper is openly supportive of Taiwan and  Vietnam, where relations are fluid and supportive of democracy in the former and energy  enrichment in the latter. The US ran training operations in the SCS recently, including launching a missile, that roiled the authorities in Beijing and had the PLA respond in kind with their own training ops involving air power and one of their new frigates. A mishap could lead to a protracted confrontation as there is a undercurrent on the mainland of disaffected Chinese citizens upset over the central government and Wuhan authorities concerning coronavirus and the loss of loved ones, that even in death were subject to surveillance in some cases.

The Trump administration has not been able to take the training wheels off of the new China - US trade agreement to expand talks that include intellectual property rights, and purchases of American products, among other issues. With an election year that is looking dubious for Trump's re-election and  Trump's unwillingness to enable Federal aid to help individual states with coronavirus related relief, casualties growing exponentially, and the economy in retreat, Trump may have an itchy trigger finger to deflect criticism and focus on American ills at the present time. Trump had ordered a reduction in staff at the CDC office in Beijing from approximately 47 to 14 before the onset of COVID - 19. Operating at a typical staffing level, this office may well have helped ward off the expansiveness of this outbreak by working more closely with Chinese officials and researchers.  The war on COVID -19 may  well turn into an ideological confrontation that propels Trump to acknowledge President Xi Jinping as less than the friend that he has been claiming for some time now.

  The decrease in the lethality of COVID -19 is the panacea to much that ails the international community at this point in time.  Reuters reported today of some success in the U.S. of "convalescent plasma" that offers promise of a stop gap measure until a vaccine is developed for mass use. Convalescent plasma was used with some success during the 1918 flu pandemic. In Italy, researchers indicate having the right anti-bodies may allow some to return to work. A passport of sorts may be necessary for movement within Italy for work or other purposes. In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies Why U.S. hospitals see promise in plasma from new coronavirus patients

Also, an excellent article on genome sequencing regarding the COVID -19 can be found here via the New York Times.  Bad News Wrapped in Protein: Inside the Coronavirus Genome

The lack of travel related issues resulting from the pandemic has resulted in cleaner air that could lead to a brief respite in parts of the world with severe air pollution, even as they battle the coronavirus. Marshall Burke, a  Stanford professor in Earth Sciences,  estimates that the reduction in air pollution likely saved the lives of 4,000 young children and 73,000 older Chinese  adults over a two month period in  2020. The Pandemic Is Turning the Natural World Upside Down


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