Imperialist China during a 4th wave of globalization
https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/ |
Introduction
The People's
Republic of China has grown economically to 12.24 Trillion in 2017 according to
World Bank figures. Mao Zedong's passing
in 1976 ushered in reforms under Deng Xiaoping that continue to the present
period approaching a mandated "Made in China 2025" objective of
surpassing established industrialized nation - states in technological prowess.
China continues to adhere to its authoritarian tenets since the CCP ousted the
Kuomintang government in the Chinese Civil War in 1949. Currently, the central government has
maintained its populist authoritarianism to strengthen and expand its grip in
the South China Sea chiding its neighbors to enforce a nine- dash territorial
claim that is not recognized by the U.N.
or major powers. Xi Jinping, in
his first term as CCP President, produced a program to extend China's footprint
through Europe, Africa, and with all willing partners through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI.) Thus,
China's central government is recapturing the Silk Road that has ceased since
approximately the 18th c. The OECD claims "projects are estimated to add
over USD 1 trillion of outward funding for foreign infrastructures" where
funding is provided by "state directed development and commercial
banks." [1]
The objective of
thesis rests on the notion of a "One China" policy that stands to
come into conflict with the rules - based established world order of primarily
western political democracies. The United
States has held the mantle of world leader both economically and military in a
post WW2 orbit since the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 that pegged the U.S.
currency as the leading international currency. Suffice it to say, China's rise
has put considerable pressure on the United States to maximize military
spending on an annual basis, while protecting its sphere of influence,
including the Pacific region where China has militarized islets in the Spratley
Islands region and has ambitions to invade, occupy, and bring Taiwan into its
republic.
American Opposition
China seeks
superiority status despite shortcomings related to human rights criticisms,
currency manipulation, forced technology transfers, and extra judicial policies
that favor scrutiny over transparency of its domestic polices.
Forbes reports
that since 2013 China's oil demand has increased 30% to 13.8 million bpd. The stress on the central government to acquire
and develop its natural resources rests on China's oil production dropping by
15% based on 2013 figures. Hence, the need for Chinese authorities to drive
exploration in the South China Sea within their nine-dash boundary at the
displeasure of their neighbors who have competing claims in the region. China's neighbors with competing claims
include Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, The Philippines,
Japan, and Taiwan that coupled with American presence in the South China
Sea encourages opportunities for
military confrontations
Indeed, as America
insists on sailing wherever international law allows, an emboldened PLA
(People's Liberation Army) is staking its claim to the South China Sea based on
historical information regarding its self imposed nine dash line. The Republic
of China, in 1947, constructed a map that was published as "Map of South
China Sea Islands" and was adopted by the CPC n 1949. Steve Mollman in
Quartz illustrates that it was an eleven-dash line that afforded the Gulf of
Tonkin to Vietnam, however, ultimately, ensconced the contentions Spratley and Paracel
islands along with the Scarborough Shoal claimed by The Philippines today. In
addition, a UN Tribunal ruled in favor of The Philippines in a 2016 decision
that China refuses to recognize, throwing more disarray into multilateral
relations with China and its neighbors. The 1947 map, while augmented by China
and the Republic of China was never acted upon until 2009 during the Hu Jintao
presidential period. In 2009, the central government reacted to Vietnam
commissioning the UN to extend its continental shelf and exercise sovereignty
over the Spratley and Paracel island clusters. This request raised the ire of
China's central government, which prompted them to adopt the 1947 map and build
a directive around their claims for future expansionist plans. Can China become a global power based on
regional strength? Due to the growth of the military budget and technical
prowess, financial strength, particularly since becoming an WTO member in 2002,
and a leader in Xi Jinping that has unlimited presidential terms, the prospects
of China as a direct challenger to American superiority looked positive until
the novel coronavirus was discovered in Wuhan China and is now a a global
pandemic.
COVID - 19 and
implications
China's 1.4
billion population and penchant for a non-traditional western diet, despite a
strong western influence on the Mainland, has created a market for illegal wildlife
at various venues. An outbreak of the current COVID - 19 coronavirus has
created furor internationally as widespread fatalities begin to mount in Europe
- notably, Italy & Spain, as well as the United States. That Wuhan
officials failed to act promptly has cast a shadow on China as a competent
leader for the international community and has highlighted the strengths and
weaknesses of China's authoritarian system of governance. On the one hand,
Wuhan workers constructed a public hospital with 1,000 beds in a ten-day
period. Moreover, the central government ordered Wuhan province under
quarantine to limit the spread of the virus within the Mainland. The closing of
Hubei province with 74.7 million population has led to China being criticized
for these draconian measures, though, despite those measures, has shown to be
very effective in combatting the virus. The debate centers around China's lack
of transparency in data supporting their claims of virus containment, and the
manner in which Wuhan officials and ultimately, Chinese President Xi Jinping
failed to act expeditiously until January 2020, leaving the international
community at a decided disadvantage in recognizing the coronavirus and putting
in place effective protocols to diagnose and manage the situation with alacrity
and promptness. As casualties mount in all global regions, global leaders are
beginning to look at China as a flawed partner that is a liability due to its
closed method of communicating to the outside world important matters such as
COVID -19.
There are whispers in
the international community of nation-states affected by COVID-19 to seek
financial retribution from China through legal means. This is entirely
appropriate given the loss of life and destruction of G7 economies. When
private citizens suffer ill effects of a defective product or service, a class
action lawsuit is launched. This notion can propel nation states to act
on their behalf and failing that, it is possible to see an international class
action type of lawsuit wending its way to the International Criminal Court at
The Hague. Might President Xi Jinping face war crimes charges for the central
governments cover up is doubtful, but appropriate in defense of the victims,
both in economic terms and casualties. If COVID - 19 is considered a war of
sorts, an argument can be constructed to invoke 'Jus Post Bellum' - justice
after war, in seeking reparations from China and others who were careless in
diagnosing the severity of the coronavirus. Approximating those costs
will take years after the pandemic subsides and an accounting system is
devised to measure total costs to a nation state and expenses to rebuild. Some
nation - states, like Canada are running historical deficits to counter job
losses to individuals and loss of pecuniary activity to all business models.
Finally, if we invoke, Jus Ad Bellum - the correct criterion for war, the
protocol needs to be amended to consider virology. The final cost to
human life, infrastructure, and future generations may make The Treaty of
Versailles, pale in comparison. As of April 20, 2020, John Hopkins University
of Medicine reports 2,404, 555 total global infections along with 165, 238
total global deaths. The political aftermath of COVID - 19 stands to crteate
power struggles in those regimes that consolidated power during this period and
may be unwilling to concede those measures.
“We could have a
parallel epidemic of authoritarian and repressive measures following close if
not on the heels of a health epidemic,” said Fionnuala Ni Aolain, the United
Nations Special Rapporteur on counterterrorism and human rights." 4
Trade and Economy
China has eleven
(FTA) free trade agreements, with many
being phased in and from smaller nation-states (Chile, Costa Rica, Iceland, and
Peru,) except for Pakistan which has strong economic bi lateral relations with the central
government.2 China's trade balance for 2018 as reported by WITS (World
Integrated Trade Solutions) gives China a positive trade balance of 359, 247,
579.098 in thousands of USD. 3
While China enjoys
a trade surplus with most economies; their largest surplus remains with the
United States which has seen this figure grow from a 6 million USD trade deficit
in 1985 to a post WTO member 2019 figure of 345,616 USD (in millions.) 3 Canada
had a 21.3 billion USD trade deficit in 2016 with China that continues to grow while
talk of a FTA free trade agreement is muted due to the Canadian arrest of Huawei
executive, Meng Wanzhou and subsequent Chinese arrest of Canadians, Michael
Spavor and Michael Kovrig, that some argue is retaliatory. The current COVID -19 pandemic has shifted
governmental focus to managing the pandemic, while foreign affairs issues
receive little fanfare unless a meeting of G7/ G20 leaders meet on economic matters
that are consumed by coronavirus related funding issues. Currently, there are
Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) occurring in the South China Sea and
Taiwan Strait involving American and Australian naval vessels in deference to
China's muscular posture in the region towards their neighbors (Malaysia and
Vietnam, in particular) who are working within their Exclusive Economic Zone
(EEZ) exploring energy to source for their own use. The PLA and central
government see an opportunity with a weakened American Navy to create a
stronger presence to galvanize their "nine dash" map to enforce their
will in the SCS and push Taiwan towards unification with the mainland. In the
current period (April 2020) China has established administrative districts on
Xisha and Nansha, districts that are opposed by Vietnam and The Philippines who
have competing claims to these fortified Chinese islands built on reefs.
China's entrance
into the World Trade Organization hoped to spawn democracy on the mainland,
however, i t has emboldened the central government to expand and modernize the
PLA (People's Liberation Army) from
35.13 USD billion in 2003 to 250 USD billion in 2018. The crux of the current
wave of imperialism in China rests with control of the South China Sea, exercising
a stronger hold over Hong Kong, with an eye on bringing Taiwan into it's orbit,
by force, if necessary.
Indeed, Chinese
imperialism has re-emerged since Mao's passing in 1976. The survival of the PRC
after the Tiananmen incident (April 15 - June 4 1989) pushed China towards opening up the economy on the
mainland for entrepreneurs and limited FDI. Looking like responsible statesmen,
China was admitted as a member into the WTO organization in 2003. Their military
budget rose from 4 billion USD in 1989 to 23 billion USD in 2003. Beginning in
2004 it jumped dramatically from approximately 26 billion to 108 billion USD
according to globalsecurity.org. Chinese exports during the same period have
expanded exponentially from 41.19 billion USD in 1989 to 447.96 billion USD in 2003. 5
Conclusion
Chinese trade has grown exponentially since the Tiananmen Square debacle as the central government chose to open up the economy and pursue a multi-lateral approach to trade by seeking and achieving membership to the WTO in 2003. This has brought much wealth to the mainland, while the hope was for Beijing to adopt democratic reforms. The approach seemed to have some sprouts with the "One - Child Policy" rescinded in 2015 allowing families to have two children. President Xi Jinping was elected in 2013 by the 12th National Peoples Congress. Xi has taken a hard line against the graft, and is steadfast in the "One China" policy as it exerts its influence in the South China Sea building military installations on reefs, creating planned security legislation for Hong Kong that dismisses the "one - country/ two systems" mandate, and seeking to invade and bring Taiwan under its control. Combined with the lack of transparency by Chinese officials over the origin of the COVID - 19 virus, and the oppressive policies towards Tibetans, Uygurs, Taiwanese and China's neighbours, the central government is turning back the clock to the period of Mao. Moreover, Chinese troops are involved with skirmishes along the "Line of Actual Control" with Indian troops as it masses troops along that border. The result is that nation states are going to re-evaluate their relationship with the central government affecting supply lines, trade, student visas, media relations, and delimiting the United Front in their respective regions. Xi received unlimited term limits in 2018 and has carte blanche, more or less, to govern. As he faces an economy that was akready stumbling before COVID 19, he is pursuing a nationalist agenda to deflect attention from China's domestic woes, and negative attention related to COVID - 19. The U.S. presents the most formidable opposition as t plans to de-list Hong Kong's privileged trade status, sanction officials connected with the Hong Kong security measures, sanction officials in Xinjiang over the Uygur detentions, and cancel student visas. Provided, he does not over-step with Hong Kong and Taiwan with a revival of the economy on the mainland, Emperor Xi should survive any attempts at his ouster. But, as James Palmer notes, recently, "We don’t know China because, in ways that have generally not been acknowledged, virtually every piece of information issued from or about the country is unreliable, partial, or distorted.6 The aftermath of COVID - 19 will see nation states demand more transparency from the central government. John Hopkins reports 386, 091 COVID -19 related deaths on June 4 at 3:30 A.M. China lists 4,638 fatalities. The state of Missouri is suing the Chinese government.
"The civil lawsuit, filed in federal court by Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, alleges negligence, among other claims. It says Missouri and its residents suffered possibly tens of billions of dollars in economic damages, and seeks cash compensation."
“The Chinese government lied to the world about the danger and contagious nature of COVID-19, silenced whistleblowers, and did little to stop the spread of the disease,” Schmitt, a Republican, said in a statement.7
1) immigration to the U.S. 1870-1910 (peak)
2) merchandis exports 1945 - 1980
3) foreign capital stock/developing countries 1980 - 2010 approx
4) e commerce and social media 2010 - present
Conclusion
Chinese trade has grown exponentially since the Tiananmen Square debacle as the central government chose to open up the economy and pursue a multi-lateral approach to trade by seeking and achieving membership to the WTO in 2003. This has brought much wealth to the mainland, while the hope was for Beijing to adopt democratic reforms. The approach seemed to have some sprouts with the "One - Child Policy" rescinded in 2015 allowing families to have two children. President Xi Jinping was elected in 2013 by the 12th National Peoples Congress. Xi has taken a hard line against the graft, and is steadfast in the "One China" policy as it exerts its influence in the South China Sea building military installations on reefs, creating planned security legislation for Hong Kong that dismisses the "one - country/ two systems" mandate, and seeking to invade and bring Taiwan under its control. Combined with the lack of transparency by Chinese officials over the origin of the COVID - 19 virus, and the oppressive policies towards Tibetans, Uygurs, Taiwanese and China's neighbours, the central government is turning back the clock to the period of Mao. Moreover, Chinese troops are involved with skirmishes along the "Line of Actual Control" with Indian troops as it masses troops along that border. The result is that nation states are going to re-evaluate their relationship with the central government affecting supply lines, trade, student visas, media relations, and delimiting the United Front in their respective regions. Xi received unlimited term limits in 2018 and has carte blanche, more or less, to govern. As he faces an economy that was akready stumbling before COVID 19, he is pursuing a nationalist agenda to deflect attention from China's domestic woes, and negative attention related to COVID - 19. The U.S. presents the most formidable opposition as t plans to de-list Hong Kong's privileged trade status, sanction officials connected with the Hong Kong security measures, sanction officials in Xinjiang over the Uygur detentions, and cancel student visas. Provided, he does not over-step with Hong Kong and Taiwan with a revival of the economy on the mainland, Emperor Xi should survive any attempts at his ouster. But, as James Palmer notes, recently, "We don’t know China because, in ways that have generally not been acknowledged, virtually every piece of information issued from or about the country is unreliable, partial, or distorted.6 The aftermath of COVID - 19 will see nation states demand more transparency from the central government. John Hopkins reports 386, 091 COVID -19 related deaths on June 4 at 3:30 A.M. China lists 4,638 fatalities. The state of Missouri is suing the Chinese government.
"The civil lawsuit, filed in federal court by Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, alleges negligence, among other claims. It says Missouri and its residents suffered possibly tens of billions of dollars in economic damages, and seeks cash compensation."
“The Chinese government lied to the world about the danger and contagious nature of COVID-19, silenced whistleblowers, and did little to stop the spread of the disease,” Schmitt, a Republican, said in a statement.7
1) immigration to the U.S. 1870-1910 (peak)
2) merchandis exports 1945 - 1980
3) foreign capital stock/developing countries 1980 - 2010 approx
4) e commerce and social media 2010 - present
Works
Cited
1"China's Belt and Road Initiative in the
Global Trade, Investment and Finance Landscape." OECD 2018. 18 April 2020. <https://www.oecd.org/finance/Chinas-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-in-the-global-trade-investment-and-finance-landscape.pdf>.
2
Devonshire - Ellis, Chris. "Understanding China’s Free Trade
Agreements." China-Briefing.10.02.2014. 24.043.2020.
<https://www.chinabriefing.com/news/understanding-chinas-free-trade-agreements/>.
3 United States Census Bureau. "Trade in Goods with
China" 13.4.2020. 24.4.2020. < https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html>.
4 Gebrekidan,
Selam. "For
Autocrats, and Others, Coronavirus Is a Chance to Grab Even More Power." The New York Times. 14.4.2020.
24.04.2020.
5 Macrotrends. "China Exports 1960-2020." 2010-2020. 4 June 2020. <https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/exports>.
6 Palmer, James. "Nobody Knows Anything About China." Foreign Policy. 21 March 2018. 4 June 2020. <https://getpocket.com/explore/item/nobody-knows-anything-about-china?utm_source=pocket-newtab>.
7. Wolfe, Jan. "COVID-19 U.S.: Missouri sues China over coronavirus economic losses." National Post. 22 April 2020. 4 June 2020. <https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-u-s-missouri-sues-china-over-coronavirus-economic-losses>.
5 Macrotrends. "China Exports 1960-2020." 2010-2020. 4 June 2020. <https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/exports>.
6 Palmer, James. "Nobody Knows Anything About China." Foreign Policy. 21 March 2018. 4 June 2020. <https://getpocket.com/explore/item/nobody-knows-anything-about-china?utm_source=pocket-newtab>.
7. Wolfe, Jan. "COVID-19 U.S.: Missouri sues China over coronavirus economic losses." National Post. 22 April 2020. 4 June 2020. <https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-u-s-missouri-sues-china-over-coronavirus-economic-losses>.