China's rise inevitable; but, for how long?

November 22, 2020

China's rise inevitable; but, for how long?

Europe as the old world order, saw the formation and decline of many political and cultural dynasties, setting an example for newly formed western democracies on how to advance their societies, at least, incrementally through bi cameral parliamentary systems. This, of course, would rely on universal suffrage for leaders to claim a legitimate mandate to govern. There are flaws as is the case - majority rules and those left behind will argue their cause and prepare, if able to participate, in the next referendum. To the victors go the spoils or some such dictum and/or politics being a zero sum game; there are winners and losers. In western democracies, it is the participatory experience that brings us closer to our leaders and compels us to have a voice. Voter turnout is fluctuating from mandate to mandate, though; Europe has seen the steepest decline since the 1990's. Global voter turnout fell to 70% in the 1990's and dropped further to 66% in the period from 2011-2015 according to IDEA (Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.) We can see that empires from the Hapsburg and Romanov's eventually decline; some are bloodless coups, others are bloody like the demise of the Romanov's at the hands of the Bolshevik', thus, ending 300 years of imperialist rule.

Today, we see political dynasties that hold influence in the U.S. (Kennedy's/ Clinton's/ Bush) to Canada (Trudeau) and Jorge Luis Batille of Uruguay who had three different relatives control the presidency before his election. So, like private sector interests, it’s often whom you know in political circles that can determine success or inclusion. The CCP (Communist Party of China) has held sway over the population with direct elections, though, local peoples governments, and villages have more authority over their jurisdictions. Confucianism "began with a cosmic order and its hierarchy of superior-inferior relationships."(Fairbank, John King.) While Chinese society was ordered along traditional lines and is evolving as demographics are changing in most regions that include an ageing population, the central government is invested in the old Confucian model with some social modernity along with the PLA military machine. Xi Jinping arrived having served as Party propaganda chief, Vice Premier, and Vice Chairperson of the Nationals Peoples Congress. So, he had indoctrination not unlike Joseph Goebbels. The Nazi empire crumbled and Xi is determined to consolidate Chinese holdings in the South China Sea region, and the Indo Pacific, in general, and Hong Kong and Taiwan, specifically. Although Xi is emboldened with unlimited term limits, the inevitable change to a Joe Biden American administration, China is beset by an international community that is wary of doing business with China as it tramples all over human rights. China is a formidable regional power seeking to usurp American hegemony in this 21st c. Hong Kong legislators resigned en masse this week when four members who supported democracy were expelled from LEGCO. Taiwan is dealing with constant intrusions into its airspace that has the military on constant watch for an attack, and Indian soldiers are locked into a stand off at the LOC with Chinese soldiers separating Nepal and Ladakh. Coupled with Chinas recovering economy from COVID - 19, floods that have decimated the Yangtze River basin, and American state officials visiting Taiwan after a forty-year absence, Xi is facing challenges unlike his predecessors despite authoring many of these power grabs.

Xi has signed on to RECEP to promote Chinese trade that is the largest trade agreement to this point in time. Brookings has indicated that the agreement "forcefully stimulates Intra East Asian integration around China and Japan.” With a friendlier Joe Biden waiting in the wings, U.S. trade should return to a cohesive multi - lateral approach, while the military figures to maintain its presence in the South China Sea. In addition, Joe Biden has signalled that he will be reuniting the U.S. with the WHO (World Health Organization) enabling U.S. influence with this UN body. Biden promises to corral his Western partners to pressure the central government to conform to the rules based international system that respects human rights and democracy.

Given that Xi is 67 years of age, he has time to strengthen the One - China policy through incursions into Taiwan and India. However, it stands to reason that Xi's China is facing extinction in a post COVID world that demands equality, openness, and respect for their own citizens. The question is, as before, when will Chinese citizens rise up against an out-dated authoritarian system? Not since the aftermath of the Tiananmen Square debacle has the Chinese government been this unpopular. Then, Deng Xiaoping turned to trade to salve nerves about doing business with China. Donald Trump has opened up China's policies for debate on intellectual property theft, subsidies for SOE’s, and opening the Chinese market in a manner consistent with the rules based international system. Communist China lacks the soft power of developed western democracies that rely on and are constantly developing to their advantage. China can have it all if it will adapt and change to satisfy human rights and the multi lateral approach to governing. If not, it will join Rome, the Romanov's and the Hapsburgs’ of failed states.