2021: A Passion Play?

 The following year promises many challenges as any "normal" year will offer. The international community will begin healing from the ravages of COVID 19 and with some luck there will be no "doubling down" due to the new coronavirus discovered in the U.K. although Ontario Canada reports today - December 26, two new Covid cases with the U.K. strain. Reuters reports "The cases, identified in a couple in southern Ontario with no known travel history, exposure or high-risk contact." This might be a manageable mutation or we could be facing another pandemic. Lets hope for the best here.   A discerning eye must be cast towards the central government in Beijing for not having learned from the SARS coronavirus outbreak during 2002-2004. A meagre 774 total deaths were recorded compared to 1,754,762 deaths listed by John Hopkins on December 26. With vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna beginning to circulate internationally, approximately 40% - 50% of North Americans should be inoculated by September 1 and 30% - 40% of the international community by the same period. Let's hope these vaccines are effective against the U.K. and other coronavirus strains. 

Economic growth for the U.S. with a new Biden Administration that is business friendlier and inheriting a COVID solution should propel the U.S. to a 3% GDP growth rate for 2021. The aftermath of COVID  on retail will be devastating for brick and mortar locations as folks are becoming adept at on line purchases,  while shopping malls will be struggling to attract new tenants to fill vacancies. Therefore, Canadian landlords like Cadillac Fairview will need to convert retail spaces to office and community services in order to survive, similar to downtown shopping malls in the past decade here in Ontario, Canada. I can imagine Canada's GDP for 2021 to trend around 2% depending on how quickly heath authorities distribute the COVID vaccine. As mentioned, the retail fallout has already claimed long time Canadian fashion  stalwart - Le Chateau  with reports  that Reitman's, Aldo, and others are in serious trouble. Aldo,  an international footwear retailer should survive by down-sizing their location map and focussing on e-tailing.There are a lot of service sector jobs here for the Canadian economy to lose and replace. The government has spent lavishly to support businesses and individuals during this period and this level of debt at the state level and individually will weigh down the performance of the Canadian economy for the next three years, approximately. 

Speaking of politics,  outgoing President Trump promises not to go quietly into the landscape and will launch a talk show tour to vilify the Democrats, Republican's that opposed him in his Administrations dying days, the Electoral College, China's government and policies on human rights,  trade, and the PLA activities in the South China Sea. 

Trump will begin to  plant the seeds for a Presidential run in 2024. These distractions will only keep the electorate divided.  Pressure from within the Republican Party to quiet his grievances will go a long way in helping them recover to challenge the Democrats in four years. Donald Trump will have a book and tour to air his grievances and prepare for a Presidential library that should open in New York. If Trump will step back from his vitriolic rhetoric,  the Republicans may welcome him back for another leadership run, though, I think Florida Senator - Marco Rubio would make a solid choice to represent the Republican Party in 2024. * In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing pressure from opposition Parties over  government spending on COVID 19 and the soaring deficit that has not been seen since Post WW 2. Trudeau's government has managed the pandemic efficiently;  keeping the Canada - U.S. border traffic severely restricted has saved countless Canadian lives. I can't imagine why  the Trudeau government would not adopt, event temporarily, a (GAI) Guaranteed Annual Income in the face of the economic COVID related deficiencies. Trudeau is operating a minority government and he may seek a majority mandate when vaccines are rolled out and confidence begins to return to our way of life. Expect a Federal election elections in the Fall which will be the second anniversary of his minority government and the average life-span of a typical minority Parliament. *China's central government will continue to pressure Taiwan and this will provoke the Biden Administration to challenge President Xi  to step back or face an international onslaught in the South China Sea that may include a military incident. Donal Trump, in his final days may be plotting a military exercise on one of the Chinese controlled militarized reefs to leave the Biden Administration a foreign policy conundrum and further support for Taiwan. 

2021 promises to be interesting in how people and businesses adapt to a post COVID word. SARS and the Avian Flu warned us in the west to tighten up with hand washing etc. although we returned to typical behaviours when the threat passed. As Chinese authorities have not adapted since SARS, the international community must adjust its reliance on China for exports to minimize risks associated with future pandemic strains related to cross border trade, and oppose Chinese belligerence in the Indo Pacific region.