Sanctions trivial in containing Putin's Russia
Political and economic sanctions sound punishing and have been effective at times: U.S. sanctions were ineffective in over fifty years on the Castro regime in Cuba. Robert Pape wrote that UN sanctions aided in ousting Iraq out of Kuwait, to inhibit Bosnian rebels, to topple the Haitian military and end apartheid.
The scope of a military conflict and the strength of the opponent often offers too little too late for many of the innocent people in harms way. Sanctions by the international community are failing to stem the tide of refugees out of Ukraine into neighbouring countries like Poland. Other former Soviet Baltic states must bear the responsibility of accepting refugees from an unnecessary conflict. In Russia's case. Vladimir Putin has been preparing for this invasion since he ordered Russian troops into Crimea. Despite Russia's formidable war chest estimated at 650 Billion, Russia is faced with sanctions on individuals such as Vladimir Putin, Sergei Lavrov, oligarchs and other Russian officials. The cut off date for Russia from the SWIFT international banking system goes into effect on March 12. Will these stringent economic sanctions, potential peace talks, and Germany not certifying the Nord Stream pipeline linking Russian energy exports, compel Putin to retreat from Ukraine. The Soviet Russian leader is intent on cementing his place as the Russian leader who rebuilt the Russian empire. Putin is too far down the foxhole to retreat. His job is on the line and Russian citizens are protesting the assault on their neighbour with over 8,000 people arrested. In the post Soviet period, Russia was referred to as a managed democracy. Putin's Russia is totalitarian. Chinese officials are watching the aftermath of the Ukraine debacle to get a pulse from the international community on a Taiwanese invasion, and the effects of similar sanctions would cut much deeper, so long as they are enforced. At a UN General Assembly vote excoriating the Russian invasion, 141 members supported the statement, while demanding Russian forces withdraw. Thirty - five abstained, as the expected group of Russian allies voted against: Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria.
Democracy demands patience and negotiation no matter the extent of the situation. In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau enacted the Emergency Act to manage the truckers protest. By the time the main area was cleared- the Windsor to Detroit border affecting the movement of goods between Canada and the U.S., the crisis had passed and not long after Parliament revoked the emergency measure.
Democracy moves slow and seems sure footed and salient In a period of conflict, but it is too slow when peoples lives are endangered. Vladimir Putin showed his nuclear hand this week to scupper any thoughts that western nations may have in thwarting his ambitions in Ukraine. The international community reacted too slowly to the Nazi Party's and Adolf Hitler's conquest over European Jews and other minorities. The League of Nations was largely ceremonial and NATO was not being considered then. America and Allies have stepped up with sanctions and some states are sending military armaments to aid the Ukrainian military. Some are Javelin and Stinger missiles that are anti - tank/ anti - aircraft, though, no match for the mayhem that Russian cruise missiles are doing to Ukrainian works buildings, residential dwellings, and citizens. It is time to equip the Ukraine military with some level of cruise missiles to counter Russia with assistance from American and other NATUO member intelligence.Putin needs to be stopped now as his actions threaten Europe and democracies everywhere. Striking Russian troops inside Ukraine with minimal cruse missiles will send the Russian hierarchy a clear message. Escalation to a nuclear conflict is a possibility as that may cross a red line for Putin. Moreover, he has crossed the rules based international orders red lines set out at the Geneva Convention and must face war crimes and be labelled accordingly.
Larry Diamond (Stanford) wrote that a paradox for democracy is a balance between competition and conflict and conflict and consensus. Diamond states that without competition and conflict , democracy cannot fulfill it's purpose. The problem as always is the right measure of goods/ services/ and individuals involved in the decision making process, and are they qualified to speak on behalf of a large group of people. There are plenty of sales and management consultants, but, what of political advisors in a non partisan manner.
Out of fear we turn to sanctions,; though, they are the entry point towards a peace making treaty.
Geoffrey Blainey in "Causes of War" explains that "... crucial to the understanding of war - is the optimism with which most wars were commenced by nations' leaders."
The hyperbole emanating from Moscow did not match the Russian armies success on the ground, despite superiority in naval, air, and ground forces over the Ukrainians. Russia is and will not be prepared for guerrilla warfare after Russia is successful in forcing their will on Ukrainians through constant aerial bombardments. Vladimir Putin claim that he will denazify Ukraine is similar to China's claim that the Dalai Lama is a wolf in sheeps clothing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish.
