Russia being foiled by Ukrainian forces, but, trouble awaits
Russian military strategists, not publicly acknowledging difficulties in their self - imposed war with Ukraine, are scaling back operations around Kyev to focus on the Donbas region in the Southeast. Mariopol lies in ruin as if an earthquake moved the ground there. Russia has cruise missiles back lack the logistics, leadership, and the ground forces that are willing to lay their lives on the line for Mother Russia. But, this is precisely what is happening on the ground with troops facing death by the resurgent Ukrainian counterparts who are fighting with much more zeal and purpose in defending the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Polling in Russia by Levada this week illustrates a shift in support for Putin and his war. Putin's approval rating has reached 83% from 69% in January. Furthermore, 81% of Russians support the invasion according to the New York Times report. The impact of the sanctions could cause those numbers to fall once the Russian quality of life erodes from the grip on the economy. Those individuals who flout the new censorship laws are subjected up to 1 years in prison. As Russia has followed China's lead on human rights in media, domestically, and now in Ukraine, people are employing VPN's to acquire news feeds and social media access as Instagram and Facebook are blocked. Ukrainians are depicted as fascists. Putin is dividing Russians as Donald Trump divided Americans during his time in office. The mood towards the war is apathy among Russians according to one sociologist - Sergei Belanovsky. 35% of Russians have tuned it out. Russians, being ostracized as Western companies exit are uniting against the West for the many inconveniences. Lack of McDonalds, Ikea, and Starbuck's are fraying nerves among the masses. Just as there is an exodus of refugees from Ukraine, "...several hundred thousand Russians have fled" because of anger over the war are worries of being conscripted.
The World Bank is promising 3 bn by summertime, while the IMF wants to contribute 2.2 bn during the same period, both to support Ukraine.
The impact on energy markets is searing for many as even top producer the United States is releasing 180 million barrels of oil to keep prices down at the pump. Brussel's brain-trust Bruegel's estimates that Russian oil accounted for 30% of oil imports in November. They suggest that logistical costs will complicate getting Russian oil to China including the lower cost per barrel. Some Russian tankers have encountered problems such as the Beijing Spirit that had one million barrels of oil sailing towards Philadelphia, lost the buyer and had to turn around.The New York Times article from April 2 also indicated that "...more than 20 tankers that have departed from Russian ports since the invasion — together carrying almost 8.5 million barrels of oil — now list their status as “For Orders” or “Drifting,” which indicates a lack of destination, according to the Russian Tanker Tracking Group, an initiative led by the Ukraine government to observe Russian oil sales. Other tankers now list final destinations like “ZZZ.”
Russia and China have recently said their relationship is stronger than it has ever been. However, given the outpouring of support for Ukraine by the west and financial dread that faces Russia, can China afford Russia in a client-patron relationship similar to Cold War emissaries, Russia and Cuba. COVID has impacted market growth and now most markets employment picture has improved significantly; the U.S. has reported 15 consecutive months of job growth with unemployment at 3.6 % and now operating at pre pandemic levels. The highest gains, however, are in service sector jobs. This according to Natalie Sherman from New York via the BBC. Also, wage gains are up 5.6%/inflation 7.9%.
The era of The Monroe Doctrine, some say for America is past. China and Russia are butting up against American presence in the Indo Pacific and Eastern Europe, respectively. China wants to re-unify Taiwan with the mainland and according to retired U.S. General Wesley Clark, Vladimir Putin wants all of Ukraine, The Baltic's, NATO eviscerated, and the U.S. out of Europe. Clark says China is quietly cheering Putin on in his quest to a modified form of the FSU (Former Soviet Union. And while the American (SOI) Sphere of Influence is waning relative to the Monroe Doctrine. American and Allies support for human rights and the rules based international order have not been needed to this extent since WW2 and the need to ouster the Nazi Party and Adolf Hitler. Bucha atrocities in Ukraine where mass graves have been discovered are a clarion call for the west to go beyond sanctions in containing the devastation of Vladimir Putin's war machine. Some form of military response is necessary now despite the threat of thermonuclear warfare. While Russia and China are challenging internationalism in the western hemisphere, the immediate concern is Russia, but, also a dominant China that aspires to replace the Pax Americana model with a Pax Sinica version that removes America from South East Asia similarly to what Putin seeks for Eastern Europe. China will be the dominant player in the east and promote peace in the region. Otherwise, how can the international community sit idly (sanctions aside) waiting for Russian officials to be prosecuted for war crimes at The Hague. The Yemeni ceasefire brokered by UN Envoy Hans Grunberg to coincide with Ramadan has created a pause in the war there has been ravaging Yemen since 2015 and has created widespread humanitarian suffering. The Yemeni conflict has been eclipsed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Multipolarity may cause America to pick its poison in order to compete with "big picture" foreign policy concerns such as the Indo Pacific and Russia at the expense of Afghanistan and others. The concern is that China is picking up the fringe foreign policy decisions abandoned by the U.S. to grow their brand and extend their Sphere of Influence, that includes Africa (South Africa/DR Congo/Angola are the top three destinations for Chinese FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) in Africa: 200 bn in 2019 and Latin America 12.8 bn in 2019. The authoritarian brand is growing and is bolstered by oil and trade, yet, Viktor Orban, Hungarian autocrat and nationalist, appears to have retained power in the Hungarian election this day. Orban has called Ukraine President Zelensky an opponent.
