Xi Jinping Facing a Potentially Historic Week

  

The (ICC) International Criminal Court has put a warrant out for the arrest of Russian President,Vladimir Putin. There will be other components of his regime that will be implicated in the future because of the actions in Ukraine such as Bucha where Ukrainians were massacred by Russians in 2022. Putin is guilty of war crimes; specifically related to the warrant -- the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children into Russia. 

Chinese president Xi Jinping will visit Russia next week to “apparently”seek peace between Russia and Ukraine, and act as a broker and voice of reason for the international community. Xi hopes to usurp Western powers to strengthen his goal of becoming the de facto leader in the international community for diplomatic relations. However, Xi has shown his modus operandi regarding the Uighurs in Xinjiang province, the annexation of Hong Kong ahead of the official handover from Great Britain in 2047, the daily harassment of island democracy Taiwan, the continued occupation and suppression of Tibetans that sees no end, and recently the installation of Chinese police stations in various countries around the world that undermines those nation states, and their rule of law. 

Therefore, Xi Jinping appears to be, and wants us to see him, and like their opinion of the Dalai Lama, as a sheep in wolves clothing - a benevolent one. Now, Xi could sell this by going to Russia with an entourage and try to convince Vladimir Putin to turn himself in and broker a peace deal with other Russian authorities to end the war. In doing so, he will present himself as a champion for human rights in the international community. This move will fracture the coalition that he is trying to forge in the Indo Pacific with other authoritarian actors, such as  Iran, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, etc., and would put him under a microscope to perform like a global leader, adhering to the rules based international order. Reverting back under his typical machinations as an authoritarian leader will push his Party back into form, and he will lose influence and respect. So, there is an opportunity for the Chinese president to turn over a new leaf, but there is a tremendous opportunity cost that he must bear along with the pressure that it will put on the Communist Party of China to  change policy and become a main stream diplomatic force for the good. Given the nature of the Communist Party of China and its role as the primary focal point for government, not withstanding the principal goal of a “One China“ policy - this remains a dubious notion. Consequentially, with the central government‘s record on keeping promises regarding policy, one shouldn’t be surprised if he took the opportunistic authoritarian “in character”approach as opposed to the “Gorbachev Approach” bringing in a new era of Chinese rule that changes the policy landscape, along with Xi’s and the CPC’s legacy. China is better prepared to weather “perestroika” today than the Soviet Union with its economic global influence. Will Xi continue along the “wolf-warrior” continuum or propose a softer landing to attract support from Western leaders. Xi can have it all, including Taiwan if he can become a chameleon with good intentions. In politics, a month is a lifetime. Next week could be an eternity.