The pageantry of electoral strategies in non-western  nation states and western democracies

Keywords: International Criminal Court    Gaza     Israel 

Introduction

The spectrum of polarizing political institutions is gaining strength. The strain on Democratic institutions because of far right nationalist or far left idealism has become obvious since the end of Covid. For China, it began with the appointment of Xi Jinping in 2013 and most notably, Donald Trump in the United States. Justin Trudeau in Canada has an activist agenda that suits a small segment of the population and is invoked within his party. This is formed by Trudeau around a climate tax and climate agenda. The international community expects North Korea and Iran to not ascribe to the rules based international order. There was a certain trepidation when Russia annexed Crimea and that uncertainty is now cemented by Russia’s assault on Ukraine. Israel and Palestine have been facing off through various intifada’s, particularly, since the 1967 Golan Heights war. In the latest assault on Israel – the largest in his history – Israel has responded with a disproportionate amount of Palestinian casualties, approximately 30 to one. In this instance, Benjamin Netanyahu and Ishmael Haniyeh are both guilty of war crimes and should be tried by the International Criminal Court at The Hague. This is a very different pageantry compared to military parades and election campaigning as authoritarian leaders are demonstrating their spectrum of means to support their regime, while the weaker Party with terrorist tendencies, is trying to stay functional in the face of western opposition. Israel continues to lean on the atrocities  against the Jewish population during the Holocaust. HAMAS was  elected in 2007 in Gaza. Israel, officials, feeling threatened, installed a blockade around Gaza that resembled an open air prison. Israeli officials underestimated HAMAS as they began to build a large network of tunnels with plans to ambush Israel defence forces. Consequently, the only solution  remains a two- state solution where Gaza and the West Bank have territorial integrity.

Political Grandstanding

Higashijima, Masaaki explains“Blatant electoral fraud “and “institutional manipulation” are two methods authoritarian regimes use to manipulate public opinion during and after the electoral process.  Blatant electoral fraud, involves coercive or non-coercive  methods of manipulating election outcomes, such as the January 6 storming of Congress in Washington by supporters of Donald Trump. Manipulation of  media is another tactic that is used to sway public opinion, and Donald Trump has been adept at using then- Twitter, and other social media to promote his policies and views. Russia in its war with Ukraine is forceful at providing rhetoric to galvanize support for the war effort and helped justify the cost of Russian soldiers lives in the conflict.

Authoritarian nation states like North Korea, China, and Russia use the optics of military parades and political conventions to present  their message of strength  to the general public and reinforce support for the Party. Period. Democracy’s organize elections around political conventions to galvanize support for their policies that they hope will inspire the electorate to  vote them into office. Incumbent parties  utilize annual budgets to placate the electorate with extravagant promises of benefits to vote for them.There is no military “hangover’ to create threats against the state because the state is the party is the military in  authoritarian countries.  Authoritarian institutions optimize their military prowess to showcase their strengths, they deliberately are  undermining the sanctity of human rights to maintain their power base. Moreover, the show of strength is to signal to the international community that authoritarian leadership has its way of doing things and  won’t be pushed around because it does not fit into a particular political ideology. Regarding the People’s Republic of China, and the hundred years of shame, the pageantry that they display is a show of strength of the leader,  the strength of the military, and to create interest and support of the government. Also, it shows the international community that China is in solidarity  among its citizens, government, and allies. 

The pageantry of China does not mean that they will not invade Taiwan at any time by 2050 or 2027, as rumoured. But it does send signals to those who they feel are encroaching on their “territorial integrity” within the Indo - Pacific and South China Sea, that if you come into our backyard with a growing and assertive PLAN (Peoples Liberation, Army, Navy) you run the  risk that the chance that something “accidental” may happen. As China will not accept the UN ruling from 2016, the entirety of the South China Sea is in the Central Governments purview that of China’s jurisdiction, and it will be up to allies who acknowledge UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea)  to enforce freedom of navigation in international waters. This will require a collective effort that has been missing in strength for the past 10 years. Recently, the Philippines have been working closely with the United States to augment a defensive strategy against an oppressive Chinese Coast Guard and Chinese officials in the Philippines EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone.) The US has just implemented a missile defence system “MRC” mid range capability, including Standard Missile 6 and Tomahawk Land Attack Missile “TLAM” that can strike mainland China. China’s militarization of the Spratley Islands in the South China Sea has resulted in an arms race in the region, so, this is not a surprise. The Central Government in Beijing is likely to bolster its forces in the region, as to not look as it is backtracking on it’s comments of ensuring territorial integrity in waters that it claims, that are international waters, nonetheless.

 The Islamic State attack on a Moscow concert highlights the presence of terrorist threats no matter the political ideology of progressives or nationalists. Authoritarianism, particularly in 2024 exposes the weakness of the international system to autocrats like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim John Un and others. And so the romanticization of nationalism in the early stages of this year is capturing interest with the potential reelection of Donald Trump as American president. He is already challenging the rules based international order to spend 2% of GDP on NATO contributions and if not, suggesting to Russia that they are, more or less, free to attack those NATO nation states that fail to fulfil that obligation. 

 Some degree of nationalism is acceptable and favourable to support democratic institutions and spur a holistic community. Certain global leaders are facing tough economic choices based on immigration numbers that are unpalatable within their nation state. Georgia Meloni – Italy’s Prime Minister, who is talking tough on immigration, and seemingly Prime Minister in waiting for Canada-Pierre Polievre will need to reduce the inflated numbers that the Trudeau government hasn’t imposed on every level of government. The pageantry of elections are a time to celebrate our right to choose our elected officials and if we don’t agree with those choices, citizens can refrain from the ballot box altogether. For democratic institutions, the choice equates to another segment of human rights. For authoritarians institutions, it is a means of strengthening the ruling party and their families pre-eminent position.

Regarding America, it is time that a female take office as President, and Nikki Haley would make a fine choice. With Donald Trump’s legal troubles, the opportunity may arrive by the Fall.Italy should be successful with Meloni if she is allowed to do what she was elected to do, including improving the economy-Italy GDP numbers for 2022 were $34,776.42 USD. Brazi has similar GDP numbers to Italy with Canada following below both nation- states due to a falling GDP due to the Trudeau  government running exorbitant deficits that has led to the cost of servicing the debt higher than Canada's health care costs.   Canada had a female Prime Minister in Kim Campbell, who was in office for a very short time. She was Justice Minister in Brian Mulroney’s government. However, saddled with his unpopular public opinion numbers and government, her Progressive Conservative Party was annihilated at the polls in 1993. In North Korea, Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-Jong has a strong influence on the direction of the country. She is a member of the State Affairs Commission since 2021 and the only female in that department.  The pageantry of authoritarianism lacks the strength to concede authority to females, and that is a diminishing factor in viewing autocrats in a favourable way. Just look at Myanmar moving former leader, Aung San Sun Kyi to house arrest. She is- female, and a former Nobel peace prize winner. 

Part of the debacle facing western powers and democracy are that countries that host militant organizations pose a threat to the rules based international order. This came to the forefront of Western thought on September 11, 2001 when Al Qaeda attacked the United States. The aftermath saw a shift from a nationalist approach by George W. Bush in his first term to a relentless approach to defeating terrorism that is “the war on terror.” Bush created the Department of Homeland Security that would consume $1 trillion in its budget in the following decade. Moreover, Bush’s declaration that Iraq and Saddam Hussein had  WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) proved false by UN weapons inspectors. Ultimately, Bush needed to find a scapegoat, and Iraq was the perfect target. 

Conclusion

Therefore, the price of freedom in 2024 is that opponents of the west are forcing an arms race for defensive purposes that, if those actors accepted a certain degree of democracy into their principles of governance, would make for a trend towards social harmony at a far more affordable cost, while creating jobs for people and a common purpose- those funds would be better used in promoting a healthier and happier society. 

While certain factions of  Islamic State are gaining attention with attacks on Iran and other non-democratic institutions, the threats will broaden in scope  and reach within  the western world if intelligence agencies let their guard down. The Prime Minister of the Netherlands has said that multiculturalism has been a failure and, suggests that Islam is incompatible with the west. That is a bold statement and seems to be a reasonable outcome for the next 10 to 20 years. 

Long-term trade policies with China that give us affordable goods and put pressure on domestic economic policies that affect  immigration, R & D,  policy has created problems as certain immigrants cannot assimilate into the western traditional way of life. Granted, with governments opening their borders, demographics indicate a vastly changing melting pot of citizens comprising communities.  Governments have to look at fostering their constituents with the wherewithal to grow, provide opportunities and innovation that will grow societies, without having to rely on immigration and trade that weakens core community values that have been long-standing for many generations. The pageantry of elections is a Shakespearean play no matter democracy or authoritarian. The best opportunity for human rights is the promotion of democracy over authoritarian values. Now, one only  look at Tibet, Palestine, Uyghurs, and now Hong Kong as examples of a forced failure of autocratic values upon reasonable citizens. Taiwan is in Xi Jinping’s crosshairs.