Implications of the Trump assassination attempt on the U.S. 2024 election

Rigid, semiconscious, his face an ashen mask, Senator Kennedy lay in a pool of his own blood on the concrete floor, a bullet deep in his brain and another in his neck. Juan Romero, a busboy whose hand Kennedy had shaken before the shots, tried to comfort him. Bill Eppridge/Life Pictures 

 The assassination attempt on Donald Trump today was a shock. But, how will this affect the presidential race leading up to the November election and the outcome? 

 Now, Mr. Trump is physically hurting. But what about his psyche and that may be the bigger problem that he will be facing from this point on for the rest of his political career. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied in the polls. This assassination attempt will further galvanize his base and strengthen MAGA accolytes where some are blaming the Biden camp for the shooting. However, while a picture of a defiant Trump pumping his fist after being shot, will endear him to his supporters, in the public sphere, and most importantly – in his mind, the impact on Mr. Trump collectively, raises difficult questions.  Americans need to remember the Trump Administration 1.0 was filled with chaos and this incident is just an extension of that mandate.

Donald Trump is tough and shouldn't be underestimated. But, political opponents do not get shot every day and return stronger than they were before the assault. Joe Biden can muster points for showing empathy and support for his opponent. Now, that may sway undecided voters, shift soft Republican support, and harden soft Democratic voting intentions, as well. Donald Trump may see an uptick in his polling support post shooting and Joe Biden is going to have to deliver a very strong performance in the next debate -on September 10, if Trump doesn't opt out. This incident should strengthen Joe Biden's position as a Democrat front runner. 538 polling shows Trump and Biden tied at 47% based on a July 6-11 poll. A Pew Research post debate poll gives Donald Trump a four point lead over Joe Biden. The same Pew poll gives independent Robert Kennedy Jr. 15%. Kennedy might be the wildcard here bleeding support from both Trump and Biden, though, he will pose no serious challenge to capturing the White House in November. Kennedy can talk from personal experience as his father was assassinated on the campaign trail in 1968.` This American election became more exciting and nearly deadly. Whoever survives this contest deserves the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.