China's Nine Dash Line Proving To Be an Albatross For all Parties
China's Nine Dash Line Proving To Be an Albatross For all Parties
Kevin Kieswetter
The central government has wed themselves to a militaristic approach in the SCS after dismissing the
UN Tribunal Hearing in 2016 and setting out to clam the SCS with its own map from 1946.
Key Words: South China Sea. BRICS Code of Conduct Fifth column Taiwanese independence
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Introduction
The South China Sea is a flashpoint regarding conflict between Western nation states and the central government in Beijing. Approximately $3 trillion in trade passes through there on an annual basis. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS), enacted in 1982, created zones in neighbouring countries called Exclusive Economic Zones. China has, under Xi Jinping, characterized a nationalistic approach to domestic and foreign policy that puts a stranglehold on the narrative of a “one China policy“ that the central government expects nation states to adhere to in order to have access to doing business on the mainland. Since Covid, the Chinese economy is suffering and it’s not returning to its 6% approximate yearly annual growth figure. The Central government is focussed on making up for the shortage of domestic growth with pumping out exports to subsidize the weak growth on the mainland. They are also looking at the global south to maximize their business model – The Belt and Road Initiative. Indeed, the central government tried to extend the BRI into Europe through Italy: however, Prime Minister Meloni cancelled the agreement with the Chinese government much to the relief of Western powers, particularly, the United States. Consequently, the central government is subsidizing EV (electric vehicles) manufactured on the mainland and flooding the international market with these vehicles that are cutting into sales of these environmentally friendly products in international markets. The United States, European Union, and Canada have instituted tariffs on these Chinese vehicles. Chinese authorities are crying foul as they indicate that nation states are trying to limit China’s natural growth. Perhaps, hypocritically, China is trying to have it both ways because they are claiming ownership and control of this large body of water, the South China Sea that they have no title to. Beijing has found a map from 1946 with a nine dash line that they believe gives them legal jurisdiction to this large body of water. Beijing published the map in 1947 that is not acknowledged by the international community.
Diametrical interests
The tumultuous political situation in the South China Sea has created an arms race that is putting pressure on pan China regional actors and western allies who feel concerned by China’s rise economically and military and/or see China as a threat domestically with regards to security measures. Taiwan is the lightning rod that appears most likely to set off a chain reaction between these two parties who are, ideologically different, not to mention culturally diverse.
Ironically, China is a member of the United Nations Security Council (P5 member.) The United Nations in 2016 sided with an appeal by the Philippines that countered China’s claim to most of the South China Sea. The central government in Beijing refuses to acknowledge the outcome from this ruling and has taken a belligerent approach to its neighbours by crowding them out of their EEZ - Exclusive Economic Zones while depriving them of their ability to exploit the resource rich areas off of their continental shelf.
In 1999 the Philippines grounded an ageing vessel-the BRP Sierra Madre on the Second Thomas Shoal to demonstrate its sovereignty within their region over China’s interest. However, with the adoption of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas in 1982, and China being a signatory, there is a conflict of interest. China is not going to give up its seat in the United Nations, particularly, the P5. But, how can they claim any credibility in the UN outside of their economic and military strength, when they oppose the UN and it’s mandate. This is the case of an individual or group crying foul when they get caught with their hand in the cookie jar. Therefore, China cannot have it both ways. Either the central government should resign its seat and membership in the UN and go about their business in whatever way they want to or play by the rules based international order of precepts regarding fair play. The PRC has failed to play by the rules since occupying Tibet, forcing through the transfer of Hong Kong and now threatening Taiwan, where they have no basis to claim the island nation. Meanwhile, the United States is trying to hang onto its status as a global superpower, despite its modest decline.
A new phase of globalization
The new world order of multilateralism sees like-minded developing economies sign onto the BRICS platform of financial banking similar to the World Bank. The attack by Russia against Ukraine has fuelled this division between democracy versus autocracy with a new Iron Curtain being established. The United States continues to strengthen its alliances with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, and others in the region. China is doing the same to strengthen his voice among their neighbors. The impact of a declining Chinese economy, that may spur a decoupling from China’s economy in the region, has pushed Xi to strengthen relationships with European nation- states in order to augment markets for Chinese exports. Simultaneously, economic reliance on the Chinese market simmers military ideals that are fragmenting due to China’s support of Russia versus Ukraine. Western Powers have rallied around Ukraine in his defense, and with Sweden and Finland, becoming part of NATO. The battle line should become pardoned7, resulting in a questionable end of the war between Russia and Ukraine. The United States can leverage this alliance to protect his interest, providing for an unofficial Indo - Pacific NATO. The US has to get a few other partners on their side, such as Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam to strengthen the alliance. It may take an attack on Taiwan by China to influence others to see the benefits of democracy that surpass the economic promise of the Chinese market.
China has a new national security law that allows Chinese officials (PLAN-Peoples Liberation Army Navy) to board countries vessels and arrest individuals for up to 60 days. We have already seen Chinese officials, blatantly attack Filipino sailors on Monday, June 18. One Filipino sailor lost a thumb in the assault whereby, Chinese officials were using swords and other devices to attack them. Filipino officials have not activated the MDT (Mutual Defence Treaty) they have with the United States. However, with this new level of aggression, Filipino officials will have no choice in order to gain more support from the United States and Allies in defending their territorial sovereignty and integrity. This puts the entire region on tenterhooks and a mistake on either side can lead to a larger conflict. It would seem that with the level of mistrust either side has for the other - and that includes Taiwan versus China, a spark towards conflict by the end of 2024 should not be surprising. China and the United States are both nuclear powers; we hope that cooler heads would prevail and perhaps UN membership with China may be an influencing factor towards a mutual conclusion that includes peace in the region. Most recently, the central government and the Philippines have been working on an agreement where the Philippines can resupply this vessel without any provocation from the Chinese Navy. However, the agreement seems to be soft in getting both parties to adhere to the language. Most parties in the south China see and Indo pacific have been trying to achieve a code of conduct with Chinese officials that would allow for less intrusive matters that have been inhibiting passage and over flight.
Difficulty for China to try and to save face and walk back on their territorial claims
The question of China, crossing a red line in their pursuit of control of territory where they have no justification, no territorial integrity and no sovereignty remains the flying in the ointment. even with a reported population decline this century to approximately half – that still leaves a population base of 750, million and a really strong market for international customers to enjoy. With time and the app of artificial intelligence, the Chinese market will remain attractive. The domestic economy will rebound and the housing dilemma stands to diversify to accommodate public housing. A concerning dilemma for Chinese officials will be how to stand the brain drain of young Chinese academics and intellectuals to maintain its nationalistic posture that feeds the Chinese communist parties narrative of a one child policy that is an alienable within the porters and amongst their peers. Chinese officials want China to be the top economy and military by 2050 which will be close to the 100 year anniversary of the Communist party of China.The central government cannot walk back on their autocratic approach as they will appear weak to Chinese on the mainland.
Opposition to the central government
China’s youth employment for 2023 is approximately 17% and is an improvement from the previous years where it was around 20%. This is created a growing chasm among the youth who are now referred to as "rotten tail kids” and are a lost generation in a failing economy. Jobs that make use of their college skills are not readily available for them. Consequently, many of these young folks are returning home to live with their parents and becoming full time assistants to their parents in economics.com getting thing.s done around the house. One young lady, University graduate, accepted a lower paying job that did not use her skills. She cried herself to sleep every night for one week and then finally quit the job. And another thread to the job market is the burgeoning use of humanoid robotics to the labour market at a lower cost. Youth unemployment in Switzerland is 2% the lowest internationally. Canada is 14.2%, while Sweden is 25.8% for comparative purposes according to tradingeconomics.com. The central government is trying to compensate for a stagnant housing market by pushing there heavily subsidized EV’s into the international market. The result is that governments are slapping heavy tariffs on these vehicles.
China it could be said had a “fifth column” operating in 1989 that were the students rallying for democracy. That was part of the Tiananmen Square debacle that saw thousands of students massacred by Chinese forces. The Chinese youth movement related to the unemployment seems apathetic by comparison. The United States has a fifth column operating to support Donald Trump in his quest for another presidency. They were undermining the new government of Joe Biden – The Proud Boys. The principal difference being that the United States being a democracy it is far more tolerant of human rights where China will quash dissenters.
Regarding foreign-policy, China is being very aggressive in attempting to capture the entire South China Sea as theiir territory and in the process creating an arms race that is in the process making the Philippines a flashpoint for violent confrontation. The US is going to have to get involved to ensure that the Philippines can contain the Chinese Coast Guard in order to allow Filipino vessels to deliver food and supplies to their military officials on the Second Thomas Shoal and The Sabina Shoal, two reefs in their exclusive economic zone. The Philippine's and the US are trying to avoid enacting the Mutual Defence Treaty that will surely rankle Chinese officials who are already painting Western Powers as trying to create another NATO in the Indo - Pacific. The absence of a code of conduct (CoC) that has been worked on by ASEAN member states for over two years will surely make no difference in China’s militaristic ambitions. China’s support for Russia in Russia’s war with Ukraine is pretty well known in the international community and is striking fear into trade partners in Europe,due to China’s faltering economy that may see them try to capitulate Taiwan into their orbit leading to an international crisis. The United States has placed a missile system in the Philippines that would be able to strike inside the mainland. This has the central government in Beijing very concerned for good reason. Pragmatism within the central government has weakened due to the weak labour market, and housing market where demand It’s forecast to drop 20% between 2024 to 2040 with the main protagonist being an ageing population, weak economy, and limited urbanization.
Conclusion
Xi Jinping, concerned about his legacy and another five year term, is gleaning the nationalist message of reunification with Taiwan. Truth be told, Taiwan has never been a part of the People’s Republic of China. Taiwan has its own legal system, military, and government apparatus. Taiwan is a well-respected democracy and affluent nation that would falter under the weight of a Chinese occupation that is most interested in taking over its top ranked industry – CPUs, that China wants for expanding its military. It seems a showdown is inevitable between Western democracies and Eastern autocracies.For this reason, China could expect a robust fifth column in Taiwan not seen since Tiananmen Square and the recent protests in Hong Kong. Moreover, for the reasons listed, it will be impossible for the central government to retreat from this aggressive stance on their territorial claims in the South China Sea.
